Patriots vs. Chiefs odds, line: 2019 AFC Championship Game picks, NFL playoff predictions by dialed-in model on 16-6 roll

In Week 6, the New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs met on Sunday Night Football. New England won that meeting, 43-40, but the game was at Gillette Stadium. Now, the Chiefs and Patriots play again, this time in the 2019 AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium. Kickoff is on Sunday at 6:40 p.m. ET on CBS. The latest Kansas City weather forecast is calling for temperatures in the 20s with winds approaching 10 m.p.h., which could put a slight dent in the passing games of both teams. Unlike last week’s divisional round, no snow is predicted on game day. The Chiefs are favored by a field goal, while the Over-Under is 56 in the latest Chiefs vs. Patriots odds, down one point from where the line opened. At stake is a ticket to the 2019 Super Bowl. Before you make your Chiefs vs. Patriots picks, be sure to check out the latest NFL Playoff predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

SportsLine’s proprietary computer model went 176-80 straight-up last season and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.

The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018-19, entering the championship round on a blistering 16-6 run. For the season, it is now 30-15 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 78-49. It also went 170-84 on straight-up NFL picks during the regular season, ranking inside the top 10 on NFLPickWatch.com. Additionally, it is 7-1 on all against the spread picks in the 2019 NFL playoffs. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now it has crunched the numbers for Patriots vs. Chiefs (stream live on fuboTV) and simulated this epic battle 10,000 times. We can tell you it’s leaning under, but It also says one side of the spread cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations, making it a must-back. You can only get that pick at SportsLine.

The model knows that Justin Houston and Dee Ford were menacing off the edge with three combined sacks in Kansas City’s 31-13 win over Andrew Luck and the Coltslast week, with Ford also forcing a crucial fumble that stopped an Indianapolis comeback dead in its tracks. Now the pair will look to menace Brady and the Patriots in similar fashion to slow New England’s offense just enough to allow the Chiefs to create separation. Brady typically has the most trouble when his opponents are generating pressure with four rushers or less.

The Chiefs’ offense should be able to churn out yardage no matter what the Kansas City weather forecast calls for. In last week’s game, played in the snow, Patrick Mahomes and company churned out 433 total yards, 29 first downs, and 253 yards passing. They dominated time of possession by a 2-1 margin.

But just because the Chiefs are a dominant home team doesn’t mean they’ll cover the AFC Championship Game spread against the Patriots, who have outscored their past three opponents 103-43.

The model knows that New England’s success on Sunday rides on the shoulders of quarterback Tom Brady. When the future Hall of Famer’s completion percentage fell below 55 and his QB rating was sub-75, New England went 1-2 with losses to the Lions and Titans, both on the road. The lone win under those pretenses came against the lowly Bills.

Yet, when Brady’s QB rating surged to over 100 this season, the Patriots were 8-2, with one of those losses coming in Miami on a now-famous last-second lateral play. New England averaged 32.9 points per game when Brady was on his game. He threw for four touchdowns in the season-finale against the Jets and notched 343 yards, his second-highest output of the season, last week against the Chargers.